Population Overall

Key Facts:

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2020 to 2022 Annual Growth  

The COVID-19 pandemic began in the United States in March 2020 and continued through 2022.  It changed the country's demographic migration patterns significantly.  It also significantly impacted births and deaths. Northern Virginia's demographics shifted greatly. 

 

• From July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, Northern Virginia's population declined for the first and only time since Census Bureau annual record keeping began in 1970.  It declined by an estimated 7,800 persons.  Northern Virginia domestic out-migration contributed to Northern Virginia's population decline during the first year of the pandemic, along with a significant slow down in international migration and a significant increase in deaths.

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• From July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 four of Northern Virginia's nine jurisdictions experienced growth, those being the counties of Loudoun and Prince William and the cities of Fairfax and Manassas. These four jurisdictions are outer jurisdictions.  Countrywide, suburban and rural areas received much of the out-migration from urban areas, which is the phenomenon Northern Virginia also experienced.

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• By 2022 Northern Virginia's growth returned, with the international migration being the greatest driver and natural change (births - death) being the other driver. 

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• From July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022 the region edged closer to pre-pandemic growth patterns.   Six jurisdictions experienced growth, and three declined in population.  The three that had population declines were Manassas, Manassas Park and Fairfax.  Fairfax's population decline continued but was almost half of the amount experienced at the beginning of the pandemic, indicating that the County was edging back to pre-pandemic levels when the county was annually experiencing population increases.

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• Natural Change:

  • In U.S. counties, natural decrease was historically high in from 2020 to 2022.  Natural decrease occurs when there are more deaths than births in a population over a given time period.*

  • Northern Virginia had a natural increase of 19.5K from 2020 to 2021 and 16.5K persons from 2021 to 2022. This is less than pre-pandemic times, with natural increase ranging from 20,500 to 24,800 annually from 2011 to 2019.  A large increase in deaths compared to the pre-pandemic times is what contributed to the change.  Therefore, this phenomenon is believed to be temporary.

  • Manassas Park is the only Northern Virginia jurisdiction that experienced a natural decrease (-16) from 2020 to 2022, meaning there were more deaths than births. 

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• Domestic Migration:

  • Domestic migration patterns in the country shifted from 2020 to 2021.  In many cases, there was a population shift from larger, more populous counties to medium and smaller ones. Many people moved during the pandemic when work-from home became widespread for office workers.  This pattern reversed between 2021 and 2022.  Many small counties slowed down in domestic migration, while many large counties increased in domestic migration.*

  • Northern Virginia domestic out-migration had been occurring pre-pandemic, but during the pandemic years between 2020 to 2022 the annual domestic migration was nearly double pre-pandemic times. Northern Virginia has a large share of office jobs. Work-from home became widespread for office workers nationwide, leading to much domestic migration of office workers who transitioned to remote work from 2020 to 2022.

  • Eight Northern Virginia jurisdictions had negative domestic migration. Only one jurisdiction had positive domestic migration and that one was the outer jurisdiction of Loudoun County.

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• International Migration:

  • In 2022 positive for 78% of U.S. Counties, which was similar to 2021.  However, international migration rebounded for the country, leading to significantly higher international migration level for counties.*

  • Northern Virginia had a positive increase in international migration, with an increase of 23,000, nearly 2.5 times that in 2021.

  • All nine Northern Virginia jurisdictions had a positive increase in international migration between 2020 and 2021 and between 2021 and 2022.

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* Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Growth in the Nation's Largest Counties Rebounds in 2022, Press Release, March 30, 2023.

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2017 to 2020 Annual Growth

The annual growth from 2017 to 2020 had been the lowest since 2000.  Growth from 2017 to 2018, 2018 to 2019, and 2019 to 2020 was estimated to be 14,300, 19,200, and 11,700 respectively.  Two factors known to contribute to this during this period were the region's economic dependence on the federal government and immigrants.​​​​​

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• ​The Washington metropolitan area has an economy that is heavily dependent on the federal government. When federal jobs are cut, federal contractor job cuts follow too.  The presidential administration in office from January 2017 to January 2021 cutback federal jobs and federal contracting jobs until the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.  Federal employment (excluding contractors) in the Washington metropolitan region was 367,200 in 2016 prior to the new presidential administration. It dropped to 362,400 by 2019. In 2020 it improved to 369,000 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Slower population growth in Northern Virginia was in parallel with the federal workforce decline from 2017 to 2019. 

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• Immigrants have driven Northern Virginia's growth for the past two decades.  In 2000, Northern Virginia's population was 21% foreign born and today it is estimated to be approximately​ 28% foreign born.  International migration slowed significantly from 2017 to 2020.  To put this into perspective, from 2013 to 2017 annual international migration into the region ranged from 20,300 to 23,300 people, while from 2017 to 2020 it ranged from 10,600 to 16,100 people according to the U.S. Census Bureau.   For more information, see the NOVA Region Dashboard section on immigration in Northern Virginia.