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- People / Population Overall | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
People / Population Overall About the Overall Population Data Northern Virginia is on the front lines of a demographic transformation shaping the United States. There has been an extraordinary amount of population growth in Northern Virginia. The April 1st Decennial Census population of Northern Virginia was 1,466,350 in 1990, 1,815,197 in 2000, 2,230,623 in 2010, and 2,550,377 in 2020. On July 1, 2022 the Northern Virginia population was estimated to be 2,545,650. Population Migration Births/Deaths Foreign Born Race and Ethnicity
- People Population Overall | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Population Overall Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Population Northern Virginia is on the front lines of a demographic transformation shaping the United States. There has been an extraordinary amount of population growth in Northern Virginia. In 2022, the Northern Virginia population was 74% more than in 1990 when the population was 1,466,350. Population 2022 Estimate 2,545,650 The COVID-19 pandemic began in the United States in March 2020 and the emergency declaration was lifted in May 2023. The pandemic changed the country's and region's demographic migration patterns significantly due to the substantial rise in remote work. Remote work is providing people with the opportunity to move to places away from employment centers. Most people relocate for family-reasons, housing reasons, and for more affordable, lower cost of living according to the U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey. Young adult, first time home buyers are the largest, working-age demographic group that are choosing to move to more affordable areas. In the four years since the pandemic, the country has had a wave of out-migration from urban areas to suburban and rural areas or smaller urban areas. The shift to remote work is one of the most impactful societal changes impacting demographic trends in the country and region, and likely will shape future trends for a long time. From July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, the nation's most populous areas, including Northern Virginia, experienced significant out migration and population declines. This was the first and only annual decline in Northern Virginia since the Census Bureau annual record keeping began in 1970, with a decline of an estimated 7,800 persons. Nationally, by County, and in Northern Virginia, growth patterns of 2022 and 2023 have "edged closer to pre-pandemic levels", according to the U.S. Cen sus Bureau. 2023 Projection Annual Estimates/Trends Decennial Census/Trends Population Projection - 2023 Projection 2023 2,552,276 Projected Growth 2022 to 2023 6,626 The 2023 population estimates for the nation were released in December 2023 by the U.S. Census Bureau. The correlations between the national and regional trends are used to project Northern Virginia's 2023 population, while the region awaits the county-level data that is scheduled to be released by the Bureau on or before March 29, 2024. The Northern Virginia region's trends have closely aligned with the national trends in international migration and natural increase (births - deaths) since 2010, as indicated in the data displayed on the interactive data charts found below in the Annual Estimates and Trends . The most uncertain component of the population is the rate at which the national and regional trend in out-migration from urban areas to areas of lower population and lower cost of living will occur over the coming years because of the societal shift to remote work since the pandemic. This societal shift may have a long-lasting impact on demographic trends in Northern Virginia. In Virginia, between 2022 and 2023, out-migration from urban areas to smaller areas continued, according to an analysis by the Weldon Cooper Center. National-level analysis conducted by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institute indicates that "as the pandemic subsides and legal, normative, and informal barriers to in-person interaction continue to be lifted, not only will newly formed households begin to add to national migration rates, but established households may also be more inclined to move"*. As indicated in the data and charts found below in the Annual Estimates and Trends , Northern Virginia's net domestic migration in the first year of the pandemic was -32,151 and it was more pronounced in the second year, at -37,414, when more societal barriers to movement and social interaction had subsided. With barriers continuing to subside from 2022 to 2023, Northern Virginia's net domestic migration from 2022 to 2023 is projected to be similar to 2021 to 2022. From July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023 NVRC's Senior Regional Demographer, Jill Kaneff, projects that the population growth has accelerated but remains slower than pre-pandemic levels . The population growth projection is 6,700. This is higher than the growth of 2,800 from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2023, yet less than pre-pandemic growth amounts. The projection was developed by analyzing components of change. Net International Migration: The COVID-19 pandemic began in the United States in March 2020. Pandemic global travel restrictions were relaxed near the end of 2021. Following the lifting of pandemic traveling restrictions, there was a significant increase in net international migration for the nation and in Northern Virginia. From 2019 to 2022 Northern Virginia has absorbed 2.3% to 2.6% of the net international migration of the country, with the average being 2.4%. Assuming the average of 2.4%, 26,197 is the projected net international migration for 2022 to 2023. Natural Change: Northern Virginia has been experiencing a similar natural change rate trend since 2019 compared to the nation. The natural change rate per 1,000 persons in the country was 2.1 for 2019-2020 and declined during the pandemic to a low of 0.4 for 2020-2021 and rose to 1.5 for 2022-2023, a rate still below pre-pandemic times. The natural change rate per 1,000 persons in Northern Virginia was 7.4 for 2019-2020. The rate declined during the pandemic to a low of 6.3 for 2020-2021. Mirroring national and regional trends, the projected regional rate is 7.0 for 2022-2023, which would calculate to a projected natural change of 17,905 Domestic Migration: Remote work has shaped new trends that are providing people with the opportunity to move from high cost of living areas such as Northern Virginia to lower cost of living areas. The domestic migration rate per 1,000 persons has nearly doubled since pre-pandemic times, going from -7.8 in 2019-20 to 14.7 from 2021-2022. From 2022-2023 the rate is projected to be the same as 2021-2022, which would calculate to a projected net domestic migration of -37,475. Northern Virginia Regional Commission's projection of growth for July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023 is similar to the Weldon Cooper Center's estimated population growth of 7,500 for the region, which is derived using a completely different methodology. Given that comparable results were reached using two distinct methodologies, there is high confidence in the reliability of both 2022 to 2023 population growth figures. * Source: William Frey, Brookings Institute, Americans’ Local Migration Reached a Historic Low in 2022, but Long-Distance Moves Picked up, February 2, 2023. Population Projection Annual Estimates Annual Estimates: Population, Natural Change (Births/Deaths), Migration Annual estimates of population and the components of change (domestic migration, international migration, births, and deaths) paint a portrait of the annual growth patterns in the towns of Northern Virginia. Annual estimates are not based on a full census of the population. Rather, they are estimates based on a compilation of multiple administrative data pieces such as birth records and residential building permits. The estimates are obtained from the U.S. Census, which benchmarks estimates to the Decennial Censuses. Decennial Census data represents the population as of April 1 of the year, whereas the annual estimates are as of July 1 of each year. The 2020 to 2022 estimates are benchmarked to the 2020 Decennial Census. The 2010 to 2019 estimates are benchmarked to the 2010 Decennial Census, and the U.S. Census Bureau has yet to be adjust this series to reflect the results of the 2020 Decennial Census. Until data adjustments occur, annual growth amounts may be somewhat overstated or understated from 2010 to 2020. Decennial Population Decennial Census Data: Population The Decennial Census is based on a survey of the entire population. It is conducted once a decade. The 2020 Decennial Census population was released on August 12, 2021. The Decennial Census regional, county, and city population data is shown in the interactive charts that follow. Key Facts: Decennial Growth In 2020, Northern Virginia's population was 2,550,337 according to the Decennial Census. The population increased from 1,466,409 in 1990, a 74% increase in the 30 year period from 1990 to 2020. Northern Virginia added approximately 320,000 people in this past decade, 2010 to 2020. This is 96,000 or 23% less than the previous decade, signaling a significant slowdown in the pace of growth. However, growth still continues at a high amount. Virginia’s population grew by 630,369 from 2010 to 2020, of which 50.7% of that growth was in Northern Virginia. In 2020, 29.5% of Virginia’s population was in Northern Virginia, compared to 27.9% in 2010. Growth peaked in 2010. Growth in Northern Virginia has slowed since 2010. It has trended down annually since 2010, but it is still large and impactful growth that the the region is facing. The localities in Northern Virginia the growth is occurring in this decade is different in some ways than in the 1990s and 2000s. The preponderance of population growth of Northern Virginia continues to be located in the outer-ring suburbs of Prince William, Loudoun Counties, and the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. However, the share of the region's growth that is in the outer-ring has dropped from 65.1% in the 2000 to 2010 period to 61.5% in the 2010 to 2020 period. Arlington has seen its share of the region's growth more than double from what it experienced in the 2000's. Alexandria has seen its share of the region's growth become 2.2 times what it experienced in the 2000's. Intensification of developmental pressures this decade in the inner-core is a response to the millennial generation preferences, demographics, urbanization, transportation and other market pressures.
- Reports | NOVADashboard | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Data Reports and Resources Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Fact Sheets Regional Fact Sheet Demographic and Economic Highlights Demographic and economic overview of the region. Last updated: Feb. 9, 2024 Monthly Report Population Change Population change trends before and after the pandemic, including components of change: Domestic migration International migration Births/deaths Last updated: Feb. 22, 2024 Special Report Reports Regional Reports and Studies Economic Economic Tracking Report A report tracking economic indicators, including labor force, employment, unemployment, and industry sectors. Last updated: Feb. 9, 2024 Monthly Report Foreign Direct Investment A report on foreign direct investment that uncovers the depths of economic engagement and activity that Northern Virginia has with the world. Published October 31, 2023. Key highlights of the report are listed in a report infographic. A corresponding m ap highligh ts the countries with direct economic co ntri bu tion s in Northern Virginia. Special Report State of the Region: Economic Recovery and Transformation from COVID-19 Pandemic A report on the state of the Northern Virginia region's economic recovery and the transformation from the COVID-19 pandemic. Published July 2022. Special Report Supporting Northern Virginia's Minority Owned Businesses A study on the minority-owned business community, how they were impacted by the pandemic, and recommendations for supporting them th rough the pandemic economic recovery and in the future beyond the pandemic. Published June 2021. Special Report Immigration One Region: Welcoming New Americans to Northern Virginia A study of the economic impact of immigrants to the region. Published March 2020. Special Report One Region: Addendu m A study addendum to the original report that was published in March 2020. This addendum assessed the economic impact of immigrants relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis response. Published October 2020. Special Report
- Immigration Entrepeneurship Overall | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Entrepreneurship - Overall Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Key Facts Entrepreneurship - Overall Immigrants are job creators In Northern Virginia, immigrant entrepreneurs – those who work for their own businesses, incorporated or not – are making their mark locally. 2013 to 2017 Period Key Facts: 47,837 total estimated immigrant entrepreneurs 42.5 percent of all entrepreneurs in the region are immigrants.
- Immigration Study Labor Force Overall | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Labor Force - Overall Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Key Facts Labor Force - Overall Northern Virginia’s immigrant population is well-suited to maintaining and expanding the region’s labor force In Northern Virginia, immigrant entrepreneurs – those who work for their own businesses, incorporated or not – are making their mark locally. 2013 to 2017 Period Key Facts: In Northern Virginia, less than two-thirds, or 61.6 percent of the U.S.-born population are of working age — between 16 and 64 years old — the range considered to be working age by the Department of Labor. Meanwhile, more than four out of five, or 83.9 percent of the immigrant population in the region are of working age. While immigrants make up 27.4 percent of the overall population, they make up 34.0 percent of the region’s working-age population. Northern Virginia has a high percentage of immigrants, 31.8 percent, working in STEM industries compared to 22.8 percent of immigrants overall in the United States. What are the top 3 industry sectors of the U.S. Born labor force? Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, downloaded from IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org . 1. Professional Services (25.4%) 2. Administration (14.7%) 3. Education ( 9.6%) What are the top 3 industry sectors of the Foreign Born labor force? 1. Professional Services (20.7%) 2. Entertainment, Arts, and Hospitality (12.1%) 3. Construction (10.8%) Source: NAE analysis of the 2013-2017 American Community Survey,5-Year Sample, downloaded from IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota, www.ipums.org ; ITEP, “Who Pays?”; Congressional Budget Office; U.S. Social Security Administration.
- Coronavirus Vulnerable Populations | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Coronavirus Vulnerable Populations Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Social Vulnerability The U.S. Center for Disease Control's (CDC) 2018 Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) indicates the relative social vulnerability of every Virginia census tract. Social vulnerability is a measure of an area's resilience when confronted by disease outbreaks like the coronavirus (COVID-19) and stress on human nature such as natural or man-made disasters. The SVI can be used by governments and non-government entities to identify communities that may need support. Click on image to go to dashboard Senior Population The senior population has been one of the most vulnerable population in the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. The senior population data and maps are a resource for government and non-government entities to identify communities in Virginia and the Northern Virginia region that may need support. Click on image to go to dashboard Immigrant Population The Immigration Study Dashboard provides a report published on October 21, 2020 that details the role of immigrants in Northern Virginia during the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the impact that the pandemic has had on the immigrant community. The immigrant population is especially vulnerable to gaps in our social safety nets. Understanding this population in Northern Virginia helps better inform local leaders as they aim to implement inclusive emergency response policies. Click on image to download a copy of the report
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Economic Impact | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Economic Impact of Coronavirus Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Unemployment and Labor Force Information on the economic impact and recovery from the coronavirus pandemic in Northern Virginia are found in the Economic Tracking Report. The tracking document includes data and trends on the labor force and unemployment. The report is updated following the monthly release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Local Area Unemployment Statistics . Economic Tracking Report Click on image for document Latest Version released: February 9, 2024 Updates will occur within 3 business days after the following BLS scheduled release dates: February 6, 2024 (December 2023 data) March 13, 2024 (January 2024 data) April 3, 2024 (February 2024 data) May 1, 2024 (March 2024 data) State of the Region: Economic Recovery and Transformation from COVID-19 Pandemic Information on the state of the Northern Virginia region's economic recovery and the transformation from the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is found in the State of the Region July 2022 report. As society eases back to normalcy, people have been returning to the labor force, but – despite many people returning to the labor force and new entrants to the Northern Virginia labor force – there are currently not enough workers to meet the labor force demands across various industries in the region. The region’s labor force is significantly down from February 2020, there are a high number of job postings, and there is a low unemployment rate. The economic effect of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recovery has been uneven across industries and demographic groups in Northern Virginia. Understanding why the Northern Virginia region’s labor force has declined, why those people in Northern Virginia who left the labor force during the pandemic are not returning in full, and how to overcome a shortage of labor is critical to fostering an economy and community where residents and businesses can thrive. This report provides detailed information on these factors. Click on image for report Minority-Owned Businesses Minority-owned businesses have experienced heightened risk associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a complex effect on the region’s local economy and on the wellbeing of its minority-owned businesses. Northern Virginia is home to 128,000 minority-owned businesses, representing the community’s diverse fabric and entrepreneurship. The report on Supporting Northern Virginia's Minority-Owned Businesses was released on June 23, 2021. The report contains detailed information on the minority-owned business community, how they were impacted by the pandemic, and recommendations for supporting them through the pandemic economic recovery and in the future beyond the pandemic. The Northern Virginia Minority-Owned Working Group present this report. The group is composed of members from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission, the Community Foundation for Northern Virginia, the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority, the Loudoun County Department of Economic Development, the Prince William County Department of Economic Development, Arlington Economic Development, and the Alexandria Economic Development Partnership. A report release webinar event was hosted on June 23, 2021 to highlight the report findings. The event also included other presentations, a fire side chat with leaders from across the region, and testimonies from minority business owners. For the video recording and details on the event see the NVRC demographic webinar series website . Report: The report provides a Northern Virginia level of analysis on minority-owned businesses. Data Dashboard: The dashboard provides a summary of the report findings, interactive data charts, and more detailed information than that found in the report, including jurisdiction level data. The dashboard will be updated on a quarterly basis by the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. Timeline of updates are found on the data dashboard. View Report and Data Dashboard Latest version released: June 8, 2022 Paycheck Protection Program Small Business Loans Small businesses have been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was a small business loan program enacted by Congress for relief from the COVID-19 pandemic's economic fallout. Loans were distributed from April 3, 2020 through August 8, 2020. Nationally it provided $525 billion in forgivable loans for firms to cover payroll and some operational costs. The PPP Loans Dashboard contains a report summarizing how Northern Virginia businesses, localities, and industries fared with the loan program. The analysis utilizes the PPP loan database released on December 2, 2020 by the Small Business Administration. Click on image to go to dashboard
- Education of Towns | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Education of Towns About the Towns Data There are 14 incorporated towns in Northern Virginia. For comparative purposes, Northern Virginia counties and cities, Commonwealth of Virginia, and United States data are provided in the graphs. About the Data and Proper Data Interpretation The education data of incorporated towns is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and the American Community Survey (ACS). All of the incorporated towns in Northern Virginia have a population of less than 65,000 persons. One-year ACS estimates do not exist for incorporated places with a population of less than 65,000. All incorporated towns and places in the United States are included in the five-year ACS estimates. It is important to note that any data sourced from the ACS is based on a small sample of the population of a place. The ACS estimates for places with smaller populations such as Clifton, Dumfries, Hamilton, Haymarket, Hillsboro, Lovettsville, Middleburg, and Quantico can be unreliable if the margin of error is large. Only data variables that are deemed relatively reliable have data provided at the town level. For instance, poverty data is unreliable for many towns in Northern Virginia so that data is not being provided. Educational Attainment
- Immigration Study Citizenship | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Citizenship Key Facts Citizenship Immigrants in Northern Virginia have above average rates of naturalization 2013 to 2017 Period Key Facts: More than half, or 51.3 percent, of all immigrants in the region, have earned their U.S. citizenship. The Northern Virginia U.S. Citizenship rate of immigrants is higher than the national average of 48 percent. Further information about citizenship, from research NVRC has conducted separately from the One Region report, can be found on the People dashboard .
- Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing | Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Coronavirus Testing Dashboard Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. Testing Data Coronavirus Testing January 12, 2023 NOTICE Beginning, Januay 12, 2023, NVRC's Northern Virginia testing dashboard has been retired. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) retired their testing dashboard at the end of December and NVRC has followed suit. VDH and NVRC testing dashboards are retired because the number of tests and the percent positivity no longer truly captures what is happening in communities. This comes as at-home COVID-19 tests are widely available now and not required to be reported to the Virginia Department of Health. This results in a significant number of tests going unreported today, which makes the reported testing data not representative of the actual circumstances in communities.
- Immigration Study | NOVA Region Dashboard| Northern Virginia Regional Commission
Immigration Study Reports, maps, and charts are best viewed on a desktop or tablet. The Northern Virginia Regional Commission was pleased to collaborate with the Partnership for a New American Economy (NAE) and the Community Foundation for Northern Virginia on the study, One Region: Welcoming New Americans to Northern Virginia. The original study was published on March 12, 2020. It is a study of the economic impact of immigrants to the region. An addendum to the study was published on October 21, 2020 that provides immigrant data relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis response . The research was conducted by NAE. NAE has undertaken similar studies throughout the United States. This One Region report dashboard summarizes and reports on immigration in the Northern Virginia region. This dashboard provides quick access to key data pieces found in the report. This One Region immigration dashboard provides data not only of the overall Northern Virginia region, but also on the localities within the region . A webinar was hosted on October 21, 2020. For copies of the presentations and video recording go to the webinar webpage. Download a copy of the original report, published March 2020 Overview of the One Region Report The One Region report is a comprehensive picture of new Americans in Northern Virginia (NOVA). It highlights the size and rapid growth in the immigrant population in the region and their impact on the local economy, including injecting more money into local businesses, property markets, and municipal budgets as consumers, homebuyers, and taxpayers. Immigrants are major contributors to Northern Virginia's (NOVA) economy as highlighted in the report. The NOVA immigrant population is diverse. These people emigrate, seeking a better life for themselves and their families. “Immigrants are a vital part of the economic and social fabric of Northern Virginia. Their success is our success, and we must continue to be a welcoming community for all to ensure our long-term prosperity,” said P. David Tarter, Chairman of the Northern Virginia Regional Commission and Mayor of the City of Falls Church. Immigrants are an indispensable part of the local Northern Virginia economy at all levels, as workers, business owners, taxpayers and consumers. Trivia: What is the foreign born share of the population in NOVA? Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates. 27.6% Immigrants widen and deepen the labor market with a vast array of skills and levels of expertise. They help businesses, farms, and factories fill workforce gaps at all levels of the labor market, allowing companies to meet market demands and expand their operations, which leads to more job creation. * Except where otherwise noted, the term “immigrant” and “foreign-born” are used interchangeably throughout the NOVA Region Dashboard and in the "One Region" report. COVID-19 Addendum One Region Report Addendum on COVID-19 Response This brief provides a glimpse at the role of immigrants in Northern Virginia during the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the impact that the pandemic has had on the immigrant community. The immigrant population is especially vulnerable to gaps in our social safety nets. Understanding this population in Northern Virginia helps better inform local leaders as they aim to implement inclusive emergency response policies. The immigrant population is essential to our country’s rapid COVID-19 response efforts. Download a copy of the COVID-19 addendum report published October 2020 Data Charts and Key Findings by Report Topic (best viewed on desktop) The data is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) five-year estimates, as well as other sources. The ACS is a survey based on a sample of the population. Sample surveys include a degree of uncertainty and error in the data. The larger the population and housing units of an area or data variable, the more reliable the ACS data. The Northern Virginia regional data is more reliable than the county level data that is presented in the data charts. Users should interpret the data by keeping this in mind. Citizenship Entrepreneurship Internet Access Economy Healthcare Language Spoken Education Housing Labor Force Additional Immigrant Information (best viewed on desktop) Further information about Northern Virginia's immigrant population, from research NVRC has conducted separately from the One Region report, can be found on the People dashboard. People There is a myriad of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that provide services to immigrants. A number of the local governments in Northern Virginia also provide links to information and services. Where to Get Help